Archives
U.S. Senate Democratic Primary is Wide Open
December 3, 2009
To: Jacob Meister Campaign Team
From: Dave Fako, Fako & Associates, Inc.
Re: Meister for Senate Benchmark Survey
The U.S. Senate Democratic Primary election is wide open, without a dominant frontrunner and
Giannoulias in a weak position.
• Nearly half (49%) of Democratic primary voters are uncommitted in the election for U.S.
Senator.
• Giannoulias holds a marginal lead in the primary with 33% of the vote. A significant
majority (61%) of Alexi’s support is weak and vulnerable.
• Despite a late entry into the race, Meister starts in a similar position as Hoffman and
Jackson. Meister holds 11% name recognition and earns 1% in the initial trial heat of
the election, indicating significant growth potential.
• Hoffman’s name ID is very low (25% name recognition) and he gets 7% in the trial heat.
Robinson-Jackson is recognized by 32% of the Illinois’ Democratic primary voters and
starts with 10% of the vote in the primary election.
Meister Competes for the Lead
Meister experiences the most gains (+22%) among all candidates in an informed trial heat,
where survey respondents received balanced positive and negative information about each
candidate. He overtakes Hoffman and Jackson and directly competes with Giannoulias for the
lead:
• Meister significantly increases his support to 23%, overtaking Hoffman who only
increases his support to 18% and Jackson who freezes at 12%. He directly competes
with Giannoulias, whose support drops to 28% in the informed trial heat.
• In the informed test, Meister captures twice as many undecided voters as the other
candidates. His message persuades nearly one-third (30%) of all uncommitted voters to
back him. Among initial undecided voters, Hoffman only gets 16%, Giannoulias takes
14% and Jackson only moves 9%. One-third of initial undecided voters remain
uncommitted in the informed trial heat.
• Meister makes significant gains throughout Illinois and among all demographic groups in
the informed scenario.
• Meister has a strong and compelling message that, given the resources to communicate
and organize a statewide campaign, beats Hoffman and Jackson and places him into
competition with very weak Alexi Giannoulias.
Giannoulias is a Weak and Vulnerable Candidate
Giannoulias has low name ID and very passive ratings despite an expensive campaign for State
Treasurer in 2006, serving as a statewide official for nearly three years, and declaring his
candidacy for U.S. Senate early in 2009.
• More than four of ten (44%) Democratic primary voters do not recognize Alexi. Only
32% rate him favorably and he is rated negatively among 8% of Democratic primary
voters.
• 17% of all primary voters give him a passive, non-descript neutral grade, representing
nearly one-third of his name ID.
• Giannoulias has a very weak job performance grade as State Treasurer. Only 36% of
Democrats rate his performance positively while 30% rate it negatively. One-third of all
Democratic primary voters cannot rate his performance as Treasurer.
Survey Methodology: The Jacob Meister Campaign commissioned the survey. Fako & Associates, Inc.,
of Lisle, Illinois conducted the survey by telephone on November 17 – 19, 2009 using professional
interviewers. F&A interviewed a random sample of 590 registered voters that are likely to vote in the
February 2, 2010 Democratic Primary Election in the State of Illinois. A strict screening process was used
to ensure that only likely voters in the February 2, 2010 Illinois Democratic Primary Election participated in
the survey. The interviews lasted an average of 23 minutes. Scientific sampling techniques using a
listing of registered voters with previous Democratic primary voting history and newly registered voters
were used to give all voters within these groups living in a telephone-equipped household within the State
of Illinois an equal chance of being interviewed. The interviews were conducted in proportion to gender
and regional shares of the vote based on past election data and known demographics. The survey has a
margin of error of +/- 4.03% at the 95% level of confidence. This means that if the survey were replicated
the results would be consistent for 95 out of 100 cases. The margin of error is higher among the various
sub-groups.
